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Did it really go down?

Two panels and their dates. Each number gets a stamp: Can't tell yet, Probably real or Real change.

First test

Fasted?

Second test

Fasted?
Same lab both times?
Did anything else change?
LDLCan't tell yet

-23 mg/dL (-15%). Noise can reach 19% (28 mg/dL) at the 80% line and 29% (43) at the 95% line.

Total cholesterolCan't tell yet

-27 mg/dL (-12%). Noise can reach 12% (29 mg/dL) at the 80% line and 19% (44) at the 95% line.

HDLCan't tell yet

+2 mg/dL (+4%). Noise can reach 15% (7 mg/dL) at the 80% line and 23% (11) at the 95% line.

TriglyceridesCan't tell yet

-30 mg/dL (-17%). Noise can reach 42% (75 mg/dL) at the 80% line and 64% (115) at the 95% line.

LDL here is worked out the same way for both tests (the NIH equation, Friedewald where it can't go): 151 then 128 mg/dL. The shaded bands are the noise around your first result: the darker one is the 80% line, the lighter the 95% line.

Noise is bigger than people think

At an LDL of 130, a drop of 24 points can happen with nothing changed.

What your stamp means

  1. Can't tell yet: the change is inside normal test-to-test noise. Keep going and test again in 6 to 12 weeks.
  2. Probably real: for LDL that's a change of 19% or more. One more test confirms it.
  3. Real change: 29% or more for LDL. Something moved, so look at what you changed in the weeks before.

A clean retest, once

  1. Same lab as last time, since labs differ a little.
  2. Same fasting state: fasted both times or fed both times. A meal moves triglycerides up to about 26 points.
  3. The right gap: 4 weeks for triglycerides, 6 to 12 for LDL.
  4. Write down the date and anything unusual that week, like a cold or a big weekend.

How it works

Your numbers move from week to week with nothing changed, and every lab test adds a little error of its own. Together they set how big a change has to be before it's likely real: about 12% for total cholesterol, 15% for HDL, 19% for LDL and 42% for triglycerides at the 80% line, and 19%, 23%, 29% and 64% at the 95% line.

Those bands come from within-person variation across 30 studies (Smith 1993) and the most imprecision CDC allows a certified lab, so a good lab's real bands are a little narrower. If one draw was after a meal and the other wasn't, the meal's share comes out first: triglycerides about 26 up, total and LDL about 8 down, HDL about 4 down. The guideline checks a panel 4 to 12 weeks after a change.

4 sources
  1. Smith SJ, Cooper GR, Myers GL, Sampson EJ, Biological variability in concentrations of serum lipids, Clinical Chemistry, 1993pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  2. CDC Clinical Standardization Programs, CRMLN certification criteria for cholesterol testscdc.gov
  3. Langsted A, Freiberg JJ, Nordestgaard BG, Fasting and nonfasting lipid levels, Circulation, 2008pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  4. Blumenthal RS, Morris PB, Gaudino M and others, 2026 ACC/AHA guideline on the management of dyslipidemia, JACC, 2026doi.org

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