Did it really go down?
Two panels and their dates. Each number gets a stamp: Can't tell yet, Probably real or Real change.

First test
Second test
-23 mg/dL (-15%). Noise can reach 19% (28 mg/dL) at the 80% line and 29% (43) at the 95% line.
-27 mg/dL (-12%). Noise can reach 12% (29 mg/dL) at the 80% line and 19% (44) at the 95% line.
+2 mg/dL (+4%). Noise can reach 15% (7 mg/dL) at the 80% line and 23% (11) at the 95% line.
-30 mg/dL (-17%). Noise can reach 42% (75 mg/dL) at the 80% line and 64% (115) at the 95% line.
LDL here is worked out the same way for both tests (the NIH equation, Friedewald where it can't go): 151 then 128 mg/dL. The shaded bands are the noise around your first result: the darker one is the 80% line, the lighter the 95% line.
At an LDL of 130, a drop of 24 points can happen with nothing changed.
What your stamp means
- Can't tell yet: the change is inside normal test-to-test noise. Keep going and test again in 6 to 12 weeks.
- Probably real: for LDL that's a change of 19% or more. One more test confirms it.
- Real change: 29% or more for LDL. Something moved, so look at what you changed in the weeks before.
A clean retest, once
- Same lab as last time, since labs differ a little.
- Same fasting state: fasted both times or fed both times. A meal moves triglycerides up to about 26 points.
- The right gap: 4 weeks for triglycerides, 6 to 12 for LDL.
- Write down the date and anything unusual that week, like a cold or a big weekend.
How it works
Your numbers move from week to week with nothing changed, and every lab test adds a little error of its own. Together they set how big a change has to be before it's likely real: about 12% for total cholesterol, 15% for HDL, 19% for LDL and 42% for triglycerides at the 80% line, and 19%, 23%, 29% and 64% at the 95% line.
Those bands come from within-person variation across 30 studies (Smith 1993) and the most imprecision CDC allows a certified lab, so a good lab's real bands are a little narrower. If one draw was after a meal and the other wasn't, the meal's share comes out first: triglycerides about 26 up, total and LDL about 8 down, HDL about 4 down. The guideline checks a panel 4 to 12 weeks after a change.
4 sources
- Smith SJ, Cooper GR, Myers GL, Sampson EJ, Biological variability in concentrations of serum lipids, Clinical Chemistry, 1993pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- CDC Clinical Standardization Programs, CRMLN certification criteria for cholesterol testscdc.gov
- Langsted A, Freiberg JJ, Nordestgaard BG, Fasting and nonfasting lipid levels, Circulation, 2008pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Blumenthal RS, Morris PB, Gaudino M and others, 2026 ACC/AHA guideline on the management of dyslipidemia, JACC, 2026doi.org







